Water Watch: Low Snowpack Signals Drier Months Ahead for the West

A new federal outlook is pointing to drier-than-normal conditions ahead across much of the western United States, following one of the weakest snowpack seasons in decades.

According to the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS), this winter’s “snow drought” has left many monitoring stations reporting their lowest snowpack levels in at least 40 years. That matters because mountain snowpack acts as a natural reservoir, gradually feeding rivers and water systems through the spring and summer.

As a result, forecasters are now projecting below to well-below normal streamflows across much of the West in the months ahead. In areas that rely heavily on snowmelt, that can translate into tighter water supplies—particularly where reservoir storage is limited.

For southern New Mexico, the seasonal outlook aligns with that broader trend. Current projections call for below-normal precipitation over the next three months, suggesting a drier spring than usual for our broader community.

Importantly, this is not an immediate crisis, but rather an early indicator of conditions that could shape water availability later in the year. Much will still depend on late-season storms, reservoir levels, and how local water systems are managed in the months ahead.

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Nationally, weather patterns remain active in the short term, with storms expected across the northern U.S. and colder temperatures pushing southward into parts of Texas and the Southeast. However, those systems are not expected to significantly offset the overall snowpack deficit in the West.

For now, the takeaway is straightforward: a lighter snow season upstream typically means less water downstream, and this year is trending in that direction.