Over the past two weeks the estimated cost of five gallons, roughly enough to drive 100 miles, from $13.55 to $18.45.
By Levi Gwaltney
Welcome to the second installment of Bean Counter’s Scrapbook. This is a place to find validation for what readers in our broader community may already be experiencing at the cash register and the gas pump. It is not the purpose of this feature to introduce people to anything they should not already know. Nor is it intended as a political statement about the economy. It is simply a snapshot of what is happening here, in our broader community, at a given moment in time.
There are plenty of national sources for financial news. Very few are built around lived local experience.
In a general sense, the national story last week was one of still-rising gasoline prices and relatively moderate inflation on paper. AAA reported on March 19 that the national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline had risen 28 cents in a week, following an even sharper jump the week before, when AAA said the national average had climbed nearly 35 cents as spring-break demand picked up. At the same time, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said consumer prices were up 2.4% over the 12 months ending in February.
Here in our broader community, the rise continued, but at a slower pace. The five-station sample used for this week’s fuel snapshot rose from an average of $3.26 to $3.69 per gallon — a jump of 13.2% in one week, less than the jump of more than twenty percent the week before. Over the past two weeks, the estimated cost of five gallons, roughly enough to drive 100 miles, has risen from $13.55 to $18.45.
The numbers are as they are found. Not massaged. Not seasonally adjusted. Not made to fit a narrative. For groceries, prices are collected from one big box store, one regional grocer, and one local independent on Monday mornings. For gasoline, multiple sellers are sampled Sunday evening, including a truck stop, big box, petroleum brand, convenience store, and independent. Sale prices count because that is the price a shopper is actually paying in that moment.
This is also not meant to be a bargain shopper’s guide. The prices listed here are averages across several stores, not endorsements of where to shop. Las Cruces Digest’s position is that store-hopping is usually not the most effective way to lower a grocery or gas bill. But knowing the average price at a given moment can at least help readers understand whether what they are paying falls near the middle of the market — or well above it.
The Top Line
The top line this week is simple enough: gas prices continued to climb, but grocery prices moderated — especially in Dairy and Produce.
The average basket total fell from $156.57 last week to $152.31 this week, down $4.26. All 29 items in the basket were priced at all three sampled grocery stores; however, there were some hidden factors that will be discussed below.
Gasoline continued to rise. Across the five gasoline classes sampled, the average price rose from $3.26 to $3.69 per gallon in one week. This week, it was the Big Box stations leading the charge upward, rising 22.5%, with the slowest rise going to the Truck Stop category, posting only a 5% rise over a week ago. The class average added $2.15 to the cost of a five-gallon fill-up in a single week.
That move was slower than the previous week’s local spike, but still stronger than the national weekly increase AAA had most recently highlighted. AAA said the national average rose 28 cents in the week ending March 19, while the Las Cruces Digest five-station sample rose 43 cents over the same period. In other words, prices in our broader community were still climbing faster than the national headline suggested, even if the pace had cooled from the week before.
Groceries continued to be a more nuanced read. This week, we were looking for which price increases from last week were “sticky,” and which ones showed signs of moderating. Household items continued to rise, from $12.91 to $14.02, a nearly 15% bump. This is expected to continue as paper products — toilet paper and paper towels — remain in the middle of a “Mega”-flation cycle.
“Mega”-flation is a hidden form of inflation in which familiar household products are replaced by larger “value-added” versions — like mega rolls of toilet paper — that effectively force shoppers to buy more at once. The problem is not just the size increase. As stores phase out the smaller version, they often replace it either with the new higher-priced format or with a lower-tier bargain brand, leaving the original mid-range option to disappear. As that shift continues, Las Cruces Digest will be tracking the inflated prices of these “mega-sized” replacements.
All other categories held close to last week’s prices, with the exception of Dairy, which fell from $12.21 to $10.85, and Produce, which fell from $7.04 to $6.52. This appears to have been driven by sale pricing visible across all three sampled stores in items like cheese, eggs, and lettuce.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Nationally, the story remains one of moderate inflation in the official data and continuing pressure at the pump. Federal inflation numbers still show a fairly contained annual rise, while AAA’s gasoline reporting has painted a more restless picture, with prices climbing sharply over the last several weeks.
The local picture this week was more mixed.
Gasoline kept climbing in our broader community, but not as violently as it had the week before. Groceries, on the other hand, finally showed some moderation. The overall basket moved lower, helped along by noticeable easing in Dairy and Produce, while Household kept drifting upward in the background.
That makes this week’s snapshot feel less like a general surge and more like a marketplace still under pressure, but no longer moving upward in lockstep.
Because what readers experience in the real world is rarely as tidy as the national story. Some prices sprint. Some prices stick. Some prices finally back off. A shopper can feel relief in the dairy case and still get punished in the paper aisle or at the pump on the way home.
And perhaps that is the best way to understand Bean Counter’s Scrapbook. It is not here to tell readers how they should feel about the economy. It is here to confirm what the receipt already told them.
You must be logged in to post a comment.