With Monday and Tuesday morning drive-time temperatures hovering around freezing, and highs in the 50s, it should come as no surprise when Wednesday brings down the hammer (Low 27°/High 40°)… and possibly, the snow.
Source: U.S. National Weather Service El Paso Texas
Over the past few weeks it’s been hard to tell which we believe in less, Santa Claus or winter. It was only yesterday when temperatures crested above 70-degrees for the umpteenth time since the official start of winter.
A look at the temperature map for the region shows how Saturday’s weather sat at 15 degrees higher than normal. It was approaching perfect sunbathing weather with mild winds and clear(ish) skies.
Today’s weather, they say, will be much colder–15 degrees colder than yesterday. Whoopity-doo! It’s only going to get up to 60 degrees? Of course, today is just the first of a multi-day slide into the kind of cold we haven’t seen for 293 days. It’s enough to make one wonder if we would ever see frost, again.
Monday morning will be cold, but by Tuesday morning, all doubts should be erased. With Monday and Tuesday morning drive-time temperatures hovering around freezing, and highs in the 50s, it should come as no surprise when Wednesday brings down the hammer (Low 27°/High 40°)… and possibly, the snow. Overnight, Wednesday could drop down to the teens.
What’s All This About Snow?
When Wednesday rolls around, Mother Nature will have flipped the script, with temperatures falling to 16 degrees below the normal average.
What’s more, there is a likelihood of seeing snow stick to the ground in the lowlands for the first time since March of 2022–1″-3″ of the stuff. [Before 2022, we had a 35-year hiatus from those mysterious and beautiful flurries.] Of course, we are talking about snow… in Las Cruces… so, it is only a chance. Still, it is worth paying attention to what the weather folks at the National Weather Service are looking at to make sure we are prepared for a snowy, and likely icy, couple of days in our broader community.
What’s Going On With the Weather?
A blast of arctic air will bring much colder temperatures next Wednesday-Friday, the coldest we’ve seen so far this winter. There’s also a chance for snow showers, including El Paso/Las Cruces.
One technique meteorologists use is pattern recognition when doing a forecast. Here’s a look at what that pattern is for midweek and how it is very similar to snow events in the El Paso area over the last 15-20 years. We do have a high degree of confidence we will get much colder with high temperatures likely struggling to get out of the 30s Wednesday. However, we are still seeing varying degrees of snowfall amounts from the models with the biggest question being “Will enough moisture move in?”
As you can see, the pattern is favorable for snow but it is still 4-5 days out. Early thinking is that the most likely range of snowfall in the lowlands being in the 1-3″ range between Wednesday and Thursday.
