The Natural Resources Conservation Service produces this weekly report using data and products from the National Water and Climate Center and other agencies. The report focuses on seasonal snowpack, precipitation, temperature, and drought conditions in the U.S.
Source: USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted a 60 percent chance of weak La Niña conditions to develop and persist through early spring 2025. The classic La Niña, which is essentially a colder-than-normal ocean temperature in the equatorial Pacific, can affect seasonal global weather patterns and provide an insight into how the winter in the U.S. may unfold. In general, the northern and central states are cooler and wetter during a La Niña year, while the Southwest and Southeast experience warmer and drier conditions. It is important to note that observed weather patterns can vary from La Niña or El Niño forecasts, and anomalies do occur for several reasons. One factor that could affect the outcome this season is the weaker strength of the La Niña.
For our broader community, this means less than historical levels of precipitation coupled with higher than normal temperatures.
As for precipitation, the NOAA is predicting a 60% to 70% chance that rainfall will be below normal levels over the next three months:
Temperatures over the next three months are expected to run 60% to 70% chance that temperatures will run hotter than normal:
In the immediate future, however, it is predicted that a sudden transition to cooler, wetter weather should help with wildfire concerns. As this weather moves through the West, it is expected that drier warmer weather will return.
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