The proportion of individuals who reported searching for a job in the past four weeks rose to 28.4 percent from 19.4 percent in July 2023, marking the highest reading since March 2014, according to the July 2024 SCE Labor Market Survey.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
The expected likelihood of moving to a new employer increased to 11.6 percent from 10.6 percent in July 2023. Satisfaction with wage compensation, nonwage benefits, and promotion opportunities at respondents’ current jobs deteriorated by 3.2, 8.6, and 9.3 percentage points from July 2023, falling to 56.7 percent, 56.3 percent, and 44.2 percent, respectively.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the July 2024 SCE Labor Market Survey, which shows a sharp increase in the proportion of job seekers compared to a year ago. Satisfaction with wage compensation as well as with nonwage benefits and promotion opportunities at respondents’ current jobs all deteriorated. The average expected likelihood of receiving an offer in the next four months increased compared to a year ago, while the average expected likelihood of becoming unemployed in the next four months reached a series high. The average expected wage offer (conditional on receiving one) declined year-over-year, while the average reservation wage (the lowest wage at which respondents would be willing to accept a new job) increased year-over-year but retreated slightly from a series high recorded in March 2024.
Experiences
- Among those who were employed four months ago, 88% were still with the same employer, a series low since the start of the survey and down from 91.4% in July 2023. The rate of transitioning to a different employer increased to 7.1%—the highest reading since the start of the survey—from 5.3% in July 2023. The increase compared to a year ago was primarily driven by women.
- The proportion of individuals who reported searching for a job in the past four weeks increased to 28.4%—the highest level since March 2014—from 19.4% in July 2023. The increase was most pronounced among respondents older than age 45, those without a college degree, and those with an annual household income less than $60,000.
- 19.4% of individuals reported receiving at least one job offer in the past four months, essentially unchanged from July 2023. The average full-time offer wage received in the past four months decreased slightly to $68,905 from $69,475 in July 2023.
- Satisfaction with wage compensation, nonwage benefits, and promotion opportunities at respondents’ current jobs all deteriorated relative to a year ago. Satisfaction with wage compensation at the current job fell to 56.7% from 59.9% in July 2023. Satisfaction with nonwage benefits fell to 56.3% from 64.9%. And satisfaction with promotion opportunities dropped to 44.2% from 53.5%. These declines were largest for women, respondents without a college degree and those with annual household incomes less than $60,000.
Expectations
- The expected likelihood of moving to a new employer increased to 11.6% from 10.6% in July 2023, while the average expected likelihood of becoming unemployed rose to 4.4% from 3.9% in July 2023. The current reading is the highest since the series started in July 2014.
- The average expected likelihood of receiving at least one job offer in the next four months increased to 22.2% from 18.7% in July 2023. The average expected likelihood of receiving multiple offers in the next four months rose to 25.4% from 20.6% in July 2023.
- Conditional on expecting an offer, the average expected annual salary of job offers in the next four months declined to $65,272 from $67,416 in July 2023, though it remains significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels. The decline was broad-based across age and education groups.
- The average reservation wage—the lowest wage respondents would be willing to accept for a new job—increased to $81,147 from $78,645 in July 2023, though it is down slightly from a series high of $81,822 in March 2024.
- The average expected likelihood of working beyond age 62 increased to 48.3% from 47.7% in July 2023, and versus a series low of 45.8% in March 2024. The average expected likelihood of working beyond age 67 increased to 34.2% from 32% in July 2023, partially reversing the steady declining trend observed in the series since the onset of the pandemic.
Detailed results are available here.
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