Over the past three weeks, the estimated cost of five gallons, roughly enough to drive 100 miles, has risen from $13.55 to $18.95.
By Levi Gwaltney
Welcome to the third installment of Bean Counter’s Scrapbook.
This is a place to find validation for what readers in our broader community may already be experiencing at the cash register and the gas pump. It is not the purpose of this feature to introduce people to anything they should not already know. Nor is it intended as a political statement about the economy. It is simply a snapshot of what is happening here, in our broader community, at a given moment in time.
There are plenty of national sources for financial news. Very few are built around lived local experience.
Nationally, the story last week was one of slower weekly gains at the pump, but still intense pressure overall. AAA reported on March 26 that the national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline had risen 10 cents in a week and one dollar in a month, climbing from $2.98 on February 26 to $3.98 on March 26. The broader inflation picture remained calmer on paper: the Bureau of Labor Statistics said consumer prices were up 2.4% over the 12 months ending in February, with food prices up 3.1% and food-at-home up 2.4%.
Here in our broader community, the rise continued, but at a slower pace. The five-station sample used for this week’s fuel snapshot rose from an average of $3.69 to $3.79 per gallon — a jump of 2.7% in one week, less than the jump of more than ten percent the week before, or twenty percent in the two-week-ago period. Over the past three weeks, the estimated cost of five gallons, roughly enough to drive 100 miles, has risen from $13.55 to $18.95.
The numbers are as they are found. Not massaged. Not seasonally adjusted. Not made to fit a narrative. For groceries, prices are collected from one big box store, one regional grocer, and one local independent on Monday mornings. For gasoline, multiple sellers are sampled Sunday evening, including a truck stop, big box, petroleum brand, convenience store, and independent. Sale prices count because that is the price a shopper is actually paying in that moment.
This is also not meant to be a bargain shopper’s guide. The prices listed here are averages across several stores, not endorsements of where to shop. Las Cruces Digest’s position is that store-hopping is usually not the most effective way to lower a grocery or gas bill. But knowing the average price at a given moment can at least help readers understand whether what they are paying falls near the middle of the market — or well above it.
The Top Line
The top line this week is simple enough: gas prices continued to climb, and higher grocery prices had more to do with what was on the shelf than the price tag on the ledge.
The average basket total rose from $152.31 last week to $157.99 this week, up $5.68. All 29 items in the basket were priced at all three sampled grocery stores; however, there were some hidden inflationary factors that will be discussed below.
Gasoline continued to rise. Across the five gasoline classes sampled, the average price rose from $3.69 to $3.79 per gallon in one week. This week, it was Independent stations leading the charge upward, rising 12.2%, while Truck Stop and Big Box prices actually fell 2% to 3% from a week ago. The class average added an even 50 cents to the cost of a five-gallon fill-up in a single week.
While gas prices continued to rise, the pace was slower than in either of the previous two weeks, and it also trailed AAA’s latest national weekly increase. AAA said the national average rose 10 cents over the same period, while the Las Cruces Digest five-station sample rose 10 cents as well — but from a lower local base that still leaves our broader community below the national average, even after three straight weeks of increases. Nationally, the pressure remains more severe in absolute terms; locally, the pattern is now one of continued rise at a moderating pace.
Groceries are proving to be a more nuanced read. This week, we were continuing to look for which prices from last week were “sticky,” and which ones showed signs of movement. Household and Baby items continued to rise this week, but this expense is overstated due to product changes on the shelf. Over the past three weeks, consistent products across the three categories of stores were hard to locate due to product differentiation. This week’s instances of “Mega”-flation in Household appear to be signaling an end to the cycle as Big Box, Regional, and Local grocers aligned in offerings. Basically, consumers are left with a choice between generic household paper products and those available in “mega,” “double,” or “triple” rolls.
Two other products in this week’s survey succumbed to availability bias. Both Sugar and Rice are showing a price increase due to a change in selected product sizes. Last week’s prices for Sugar and Rice were based on the 1 lb. package. Because of a lack of inventory, the sampled price was shifted to 2 lb. packages of each. For Sugar, even doubling the amount priced, the increase in price was minimal. For Rice, on the other hand, the price nearly doubled, up 98%. That is what should be expected when going from 1 lb. to 2 lb., but it still matters because the shopper standing in the aisle pays the price that is actually available.
Dairy showed signs of relief, with Cheese prices dropping and Milk holding steady. This stability was disrupted by the price of Eggs, which jumped 25% over the previous week; however, this was due to a lack of availability of the equivalent brand from the previous week. The closest substitute was at least a dollar more expensive. This increase should correct itself next week, should local stores be able to replenish the Eggs at the sought price point.
Freezer (-8.6%), Produce (-9.4%), and Meat (-6.7%) all showed drops in price over the previous week. The prices in each of these categories fell to price points lower than the first week recorded in early March.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Nationally, inflation still looks moderate in the official data, even while gasoline prices remain under obvious pressure. Consumer prices were up 2.4% over the year ending in February, and Reuters noted that February’s monthly increase was 0.3%, with gasoline and food among the categories contributing to that move. At the same time, AAA’s latest gas report made clear that pump prices remain under unusual strain, with the national average up one dollar in one month.
The local picture this week was more complicated than either of the first two installments.
Gasoline kept climbing in our broader community, but far more slowly than before. Groceries, meanwhile, moved higher again, though not because every aisle suddenly got more expensive at once. This week’s basket was pulled upward by a different sort of pressure: shifting package sizes, product substitutions, and the quiet inflation that appears when the old version of an item disappears and the shopper is left choosing among larger, pricier, or lesser alternatives.
What readers experience in the real world is rarely as tidy as the national story. Sometimes the price goes up because the item costs more. Sometimes it goes up because the item itself has changed. Sometimes the shelf still holds the same category, but not the same product. A shopper may find relief in the freezer case or the produce aisle and still watch the basket rise because rice doubled in size, eggs lost their lower-priced counterpart, or paper goods continue their slow march toward “mega.”
And perhaps that is the best way to understand Bean Counter’s Scrapbook.
It is not here to tell readers how they should feel about the economy.
It is here to confirm what the receipt already told them.
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