Since starting the Scrapbook on March 8, overall grocery prices have increased nearly 8% — despite frequent sale and price-change activity.
By Levi Gwaltney
Welcome to the Bean Counter’s Scrapbook.
This is a place to find validation for what readers in our broader community may already be experiencing at the cash register and the gas pump. It is not the purpose of this feature to introduce people to anything they should not already know. Nor is it intended as a political statement about the economy. It is simply a snapshot of what is happening here, in our broader community, at a given moment in time.
There are plenty of national sources for financial news. Very few are built around lived local experience.
Nationally, the story this week was one of continued pressure at the pump, but growing signs that the pace of increase may be easing. AAA’s national average for regular gasoline moved above $4 per gallon, the highest level since 2022, after a month of steep increases tied to oil-market disruption and spring demand. Reuters also reported that fuel prices could remain elevated for months, even if shipping conditions improve, because global supply chains and refining markets do not reset overnight.
Here in our broader community, the rise continued to creep. The five-station sample used for this week’s fuel snapshot rose from an average of $3.79 to $3.83 per gallon — a jump of 1.1% in one week, less than the jump of more than ten percent two weeks before, or twenty percent in the three-week-ago period. Over the past four weeks, the estimated cost of five gallons, roughly enough to drive 100 miles, has risen from $13.55 to $19.15.
The numbers are as they are found. Not massaged. Not seasonally adjusted. Not made to fit a narrative. For groceries, prices are collected from one big box store, one regional grocer, and one local independent on Monday mornings. For gasoline, multiple sellers are sampled Sunday evening, including a truck stop, big box, petroleum brand, convenience store, and independent. This week, that matters because the meager rise observed locally stands in stark contrast to national reports of much steeper pressure at the pump. While that pressure may be building in our broader community, it has not yet shown up here at the same pace. Here, sale prices count because that is the price a shopper is actually paying in that moment.
This is also not meant to be a bargain shopper’s guide. The prices listed here are averages across several stores, not endorsements of where to shop. Las Cruces Digest’s position is that store-hopping is usually not the most effective way to lower a grocery or gas bill. But knowing the average price at a given moment can at least help readers understand whether what they are paying falls near the middle of the market — or well above it.
The Top Line
The top line this week is simple enough: gas prices continued to climb, and grocery prices were held down by a few deep discounts on items like bacon and diapers.
The average grocery basket rose from $157.99 last week to $158.45 this week, an increase of just 46 cents. All 29 items in the basket were priced at all three sampled grocery stores; however, there were a couple of sales that hit, masking meager rises across many departments.
Groceries continue to be the most nuanced read. While we continued to look for which prices remained “sticky,” there was an incremental shift across most categories. Dairy, Produce, and Freezer showed the biggest jumps this week, with Freezer items rising 9.4%. In almost all of these cases, the rise had as much to do with ending sale cycles as with inflationary pressure. Still, since starting the Scrapbook on March 8, overall grocery prices have increased nearly 8% — despite frequent sale and price-change activity.
Dairy showed a 4% increase over the week-ago period due to the end of a sale cycle on cheese and an increase in the cost of eggs. This recent jump confirms an inflationary trend, as Dairy prices have risen 8% over the past four weeks, even when week-to-week shopping observations have hinted at moments of possible easing.
Freezer (9.4%), Produce (8.2%), and Dairy (4%) all showed upward price pressure, but a deep discount in Meat — a high-dollar department — resulted in a whole dollar’s drop when the basket was totaled. Even with a slight increase in the cost of ground beef, one regional grocer’s deep discount on bacon helped keep the overall basket in check.
Gasoline continued to rise. Across the five gasoline classes sampled, the average price rose from $3.79 to $3.83 per gallon in one week. This week, it was Independent stations leading the steady march upward, rising 5.2%. Truck Stops finally got in step, showing a 3.8% rise from the week-ago period.
While gas prices continued to rise, the pace was far slower than in any of the previous three weeks, and it also lagged the broader national story. AAA and other national trackers continue to show pump prices under heavy strain, with the U.S. average above $4.10 this week and some analysts saying relief may finally begin if global oil markets calm down. Locally, by contrast, the increase was real but modest — another step upward, not another leap.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Nationally, the energy story is still hotter than the grocery story. Public inflation expectations rose in March, and New York Fed survey data showed Americans expecting much bigger gasoline-price increases ahead than they had just a month earlier. That jump in expectations was tied directly to the energy shock now working its way through the economy.
The local picture this week was steadier, but not calm.
Gasoline kept rising in our broader community, though the pace slowed sharply from the previous three weeks. Groceries, meanwhile, were held almost flat only because some meaningful discounts landed at the right moment. Strip those out, and the underlying direction of the basket still points upward. That is what made this week’s reading feel different from the week before: less like a broad surge, and more like a market in which prices are still trying to rise, but are being interrupted by temporary sales and the occasional outlier bargain.
That distinction matters.
Because what readers experience in the real world is rarely as neat as the national story. Sometimes the pressure is obvious and immediate, as it has been at the pump. Sometimes it hides behind sale cycles, substitutions, or a lucky discount in one expensive department that masks smaller increases almost everywhere else. A shopper can walk away feeling like prices “held” for the week and still be standing in a marketplace where the long-term direction remains unmistakably upward.
And perhaps that is the best way to understand Bean Counter’s Scrapbook.
It is not here to tell readers how they should feel about the economy.
It is here to confirm what the receipt already told them.
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