Dallas Fed Analysis Tracks Juárez Shift Tied to Regional Data Center Growth
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
By Isabel Brizuela, Jesus Cañas, Luis Torres and Diego Morales-Burnett
Photo: Courtesy
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas takes a clear-eyed look at the transformation underway in Ciudad Juárez—one that, while framed as job loss, is better understood as a shift in what kind of work the region is being asked to do.
In their recent analysis, economists Isabel Brizuela, Jesus Cañas, Luis Torres and Diego Morales-Burnett document the loss of roughly 57,500 maquiladora jobs between mid-2023 and mid-2025. The causes are familiar: slowing demand in the automotive sector, rising wages, a stronger peso, and increased trade pressures. On paper, it reads as contraction, but the Dallas Fed’s work points in a different direction.
Rather than a collapse in manufacturing, Juárez appears to be moving away from labor-intensive production toward a more capital-intensive model—one requiring fewer workers, but producing more complex, higher-value goods. In particular, the report highlights growth in electronics and computing-related manufacturing, sectors tied directly to the expanding demand for data infrastructure in the United States.
That’s where the story crosses the border.
Data center development in the region—most notably large-scale projects in El Paso and the emerging Project Jupiterfacility in Las Cruces—is creating sustained demand for servers, processors, and networking equipment. Much of that hardware is being produced or assembled in Juárez, where manufacturers are retooling to meet the needs of a different kind of economy.
Trade flows reflect the change. Computer and electronic products moving through the El Paso trade district have surged, while traditional transportation equipment—long a cornerstone of Juárez’s industrial base—has declined. The region is not simply producing less; it is producing something else.
The Dallas Fed places this shift in historical context. Juárez has faced similar transitions before, adapting when lower-cost regions absorbed earlier waves of labor-intensive manufacturing. Each time, the city moved up the value chain. This moment appears to be another iteration of that pattern—though with higher stakes, driven by the scale and speed of technological change.
For our broader community, the takeaway is straightforward:
The data centers rising in southern New Mexico are not isolated developments. They are part of a cross-border system in which Juárez continues to play a central role—supplying the physical backbone of the digital infrastructure being built here at home.
The report does not ignore the challenges ahead—workforce alignment, policy uncertainty, and rising costs all remain in play. But its central argument holds: the region’s manufacturing base is evolving, not disappearing.
Reading Room Note
This article is based on analysis published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Readers are encouraged to explore the full report for additional data, charts and regional context.
About the authors
Isabel Brizuela is a business economist in the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Jesus Cañas is a senior business economist in the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Luis Torres is a senior business economist in the San Antonio Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Diego Morales-Burnett is a research analyst in the Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
The views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas or the Federal Reserve System.
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