Here in our broader community, instability at the gas pump is almost to be expected at this point.
By Levi Gwaltney for Las Cruces Digest
Welcome to the Bean Counter’s Scrapbook.
This is a place to find validation for what readers in our broader community may already be experiencing at the cash register and the gas pump. It is not the purpose of this feature to introduce people to anything they should not already know. Nor is it intended as a political statement about the economy. It is simply a snapshot of what is happening here, in our broader community, at a given moment in time.
There are plenty of national sources for financial news. Very few are built around lived local experience.
Nationally, the pressure at the pump remains the dominant consumer story. AAA’s national average for regular gasoline is now above $4.40 per gallon, the highest level in years, after several weeks of sharp increases tied to tightening supply and seasonal demand. The latest federal inflation report also showed food-at-home prices still moving higher, up 0.7% in April and 2.9% over the previous 12 months, while the gasoline index rose 5.4% in April alone. In other words, the national story is still one of expensive fuel and a grocery basket that remains under slow but steady upward pressure.
Here in our broader community, instability at the gas pump is almost to be expected at this point. The nearly 16% rise over the two previous weeks has led to a 4.6% drop this past week. The five-station sample used for this week’s fuel snapshot fell from an average of $4.14 to $3.95 per gallon — shortening the life of $4 gas at the pump, and interrupting what was beginning to look like a pattern of steady price increases. Over the past eight weeks, the estimated cost of five gallons — roughly enough to drive 100 miles — has risen from $13.55 to $19.75, allowing for a whole quarter in change for an Andrew Jackson. As it stands now, only last week had consumers digging into the coin tray to help out that $20. Now, there’s a whole quarter left over to feed the car’s coin catcher.
For gasoline, multiple sellers are sampled Sunday evening, including a truck stop, big box, petroleum brand, convenience store, and independent. Here, offered discount prices count because that is the price a shopper is actually paying in that moment. The numbers are as they are found. Not massaged. Not seasonally adjusted. Not made to fit a narrative. For groceries, prices are collected from one big box store, one regional grocer, and one local independent on Monday mornings.
This is also not meant to be a bargain shopper’s guide. The prices listed here are averages across several stores, not endorsements of where to shop. Las Cruces Digest’s position is that store-hopping is usually not the most effective way to lower a grocery or gas bill. But knowing the average price at a given moment can at least help readers understand whether what they are paying falls near the middle of the market — or well above it.
The Top Line
The top line this week is straightforward: fuel prices fell back below the psychological $4-a-gallon barrier this week, but the longstanding counterbalance of Meat and Produce finally gave way, soaking up any excess in the coin purse gained by slightly lower gas prices. Still, prices at local grocers generally held in Pantry, Freezer, Baby, and Household, but the Meat, Dairy, Bakery, and Produce aisles all showed pops in prices this past week.
The average grocery basket rose more than three dollars, from $159.54 to $162.58, and in the process managed to bring all aisles at the grocery store above the baseline set in early March. There are no more “unaffected” aisles.
Bakery and Dairy saw a 2% to 3% increase, but Meat jumped 7.5% at the end of a deep discount period in whole-chicken prices at one grocer. In fact, after the discount, the new regular price of whole chickens rebounded to the highest price seen since March. The biggest price bump came from the Produce section, jumping nearly 20% on the back of lettuce and potatoes.
Local vs. National Pressure
Nationally, the pressure still looks heavier at the pump than in the grocery aisle. AAA’s national average remains well above what drivers in our broader community are paying, and Reuters has reported that gasoline prices have been a major driver of national retail-sales growth, effectively pulling more money toward fuel and leaving less available for other household spending. At the same time, the Bureau of Labor Statistics says grocery inflation remains present but more measured, with food-at-home prices up 0.7% in April and fruits and vegetables up 1.8% for the month.
That is where the local and national stories begin to part company.
Nationally, gasoline remains the louder story. Here in our broader community, gas prices did ease this week, but groceries stepped in to absorb much of that relief. In other words, the local experience was not one of broad improvement. It was one expense backing off while another moved up to take its place. That is the sort of thing a national average can flatten. A shopper here does not experience fuel and groceries as separate economic stories. They experience them together, in the same weekend, on the same errand, and out of the same wallet.
The Bottom Line
This week offered relief, but not much of it.
Fuel prices in our broader community did exactly what people had been hoping they might do: they dipped back below $4 and gave drivers a little breathing room. But groceries moved the other direction, and they did so across enough departments to swallow most of that gain before it could feel like relief.
That may be the clearest lesson in this week’s numbers.
Nationally, the story remains one of expensive fuel and persistent grocery inflation. Locally, the picture is a little less dramatic and a little more frustrating. One bill softens. Another stiffens. A shopper picks up a little relief at the pump, only to hand it back in the produce aisle or the meat case.
So while this week interrupted the rise in gas prices, it did not interrupt the larger pressure on household spending.
And perhaps that is the best way to understand Bean Counter’s Scrapbook.
It is not here to tell readers how they should feel about the economy.
It is here to confirm what the receipt already told them.
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