According to the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service Snow Survey Program, most of New Mexico experienced “no snow” conditions by the end of March, with only the northernmost basins reporting measurable snowpack.
Source: USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service
Photo: Courtesy
New Mexico’s latest water supply outlook points to significantly reduced runoff this year, driven by record-low snowpack and below-normal precipitation across much of the state.
According to the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service Snow Survey Program, most of New Mexico experienced “no snow” conditions by the end of March, with only the northernmost basins reporting measurable snowpack.
Snowpack Near Record Lows
Key basins reported extremely low snow levels:
- Rio Chama–Upper Rio Grande: 7% of normal
- Rio Grande Headwaters: 9% of normal
- San Juan Basin: 11% of normal
Warmer winter temperatures led to more rainfall than snowfall, limiting snow accumulation that typically feeds spring and summer water supplies.
Precipitation Below Normal
Overall precipitation also trended below average statewide:
- Highest: 86% of normal (San Juan Basin)
- Lowest: 42% of normal (Canadian Basin)
Mixed Reservoir Conditions
Reservoir storage levels varied by region:
- Below normal in southwestern basins
- Above normal in parts of the Upper Rio Grande, Canadian, and Pecos basins
Runoff Expected to Be Low
With limited snowpack to melt, runoff projections are significantly below normal, with some locations expecting near-record or record low flows.
Water officials are encouraging users across the state to manage resources conservatively heading into the warmer months.
How Forecasts Are Made
Most of the West’s annual water supply comes from mountain snowpack. Hydrologists estimate future streamflow using:
- snow measurements from field sites and automated stations
- precipitation data
- past streamflow conditions
- large-scale climate patterns
Because forecasts depend on future weather, they are presented as a range of possible outcomes, not a single number.
Understanding the Uncertainty
Forecasts include probability ranges:
- 50% forecast: equal chance flows will be higher or lower
- Higher probability (70–90%): more conservative, lower water estimates
- Lower probability (10–30%): higher flow scenarios
Officials note that forecasts become more accurate as the season progresses but still carry uncertainty.
Bottom Line
- Snowpack across New Mexico is at or near record lows
- Precipitation has been below normal
- Runoff is expected to be significantly reduced
- Water users are urged to plan conservatively
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