Using decades of administrative data from the Texas Education Agency, the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board and the National Student Clearinghouse, the authors examined how Texas students’ college enrollment patterns have changed over time.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
By Christa Deneault, Isabel Dhillon and Dylan Council
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas – Southwest Economy (June 26, 2026)
Cover Image: Courtesy
One of the recurring assumptions in discussions about higher education is that when students leave their home state to attend college elsewhere, it is evidence that the state’s education system is failing. A recent analysis by economists Christa Deneault, Isabel Dhillon and Dylan Council of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas offers a useful reminder that the issue is considerably more complex.
Using decades of administrative data from the Texas Education Agency, the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board and the National Student Clearinghouse, the authors examined how Texas students’ college enrollment patterns have changed over time. Their research found that while enrollment at community colleges has declined significantly, enrollment at four-year universities has remained comparatively stable and bachelor’s degree completion rates have improved, particularly among historically underserved student populations.
Perhaps the most interesting finding is that more Texas students are choosing to attend college outside the state. The share of Texas high school graduates enrolling at out-of-state colleges increased from 7.8 percent in 2015 to 9.4 percent in 2022. Among the state’s highest-achieving students, the increase was even more pronounced, rising from 6.8 percent to 12.6 percent over the same period. Because those students are less likely to return to Texas for employment, the authors describe the phenomenon as a form of brain drain.
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Importantly, however, the authors caution against interpreting those numbers as evidence that Texas' higher education system is deteriorating. Instead, they note that the trend is not unique to Texas. Students across the country are increasingly crossing state lines to pursue higher education, suggesting that greater geographic mobility and an increasingly interconnected economy may be influencing enrollment decisions as much as institutional quality.
That distinction is significant. Texas possesses one of the nation's largest public university systems and continues to experience strong population and economic growth, yet it is confronting many of the same enrollment dynamics seen elsewhere. At the same time, the Dallas Fed researchers found that student outcomes are generally improving, including higher bachelor's degree completion rates and continued wage advantages for those pursuing higher education. Rather than portraying higher education as being in decline, the report concludes that the landscape is evolving in response to changing labor markets, student preferences and educational pathways.
For readers following discussions about higher education in New Mexico and across the Southwest, the study provides an important point of comparison. Student migration across state lines, by itself, should not be viewed as evidence that a state's education system is deficient. As the Dallas Fed researchers demonstrate, even states with large university systems and expanding economies are experiencing similar patterns.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Southwest Economy. "Texas Community College Enrollment Slips While Four-Year Rates Stay Stable," by Christa Deneault, Isabel Dhillon and Dylan Council, published June 26, 2026. For the complete analysis, see the original article from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
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